Executive Summary
Vietnam's economy continues to demonstrate robust growth momentum in 2025, with GDP expanding 7.96 percent in Q2 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. The first half of 2025 recorded growth of 7.52%, the highest mid-year growth rate since 2011.
Key Economic Indicators 2025
Actual Results:
- Q1 2025: 6.9% YoY
- Q2 2025: 7.96% YoY
- First Half 2025: 7.52%
2025 GDP Growth Forecasts:
- World Bank: 5.8%
- ADB: 6.6%
- IMF: 5.2%
- Government Target: 8.3–8.5%
GDP Growth Visualization
2025 Inflation Trends:
- May 2025: 3.24%
- June 2025: 3.57%
- IMF Forecast: 2.9%
- ADB Forecast: 4.0%
Inflation Rate Visualization
Q1 2025: 2.20% (down from 2.22% in Q4 2024)
Unemployment Trend
First 5 months 2025:
- Registered Capital: $18.4 billion (↑51% YoY)
- Disbursed Capital: $8.9 billion
First Half 2025:
- Total FDI: US$21.51 billion (↑32.6% YoY)
FDI Growth Visualization
Sectoral Analysis
Primary Growth Drivers
- Services Sector: Major contributor to GDP growth
- Manufacturing Sector: Maintains recovery trajectory
- Export Industries: Continue as economic backbone
- Banking Sector: Projected 17% earnings increase in 2025
Retail Performance
First quarter 2025 retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND ($66.83 billion), reflecting 9.9% YoY growth.
Challenges and Risk Factors
- Global trade tensions impact export activities
- US tariff policies pressure export-oriented businesses
- Geopolitical instability increases business uncertainty
- FDI overdependence warns of inflation risks
- Macroeconomic stability concerns with public debt and inflation
Historical Comparison
2024 GDP growth: 7.1%
2025 forecast: Growth may moderate due to external factors
Long-term outlook: Resilient fundamentals despite short-term headwinds
Year-on-Year GDP Growth (2020-2025)
Economic Outlook and Projections
Vietnam's economy started 2025 strongly with 6.9% YoY growth in Q1. The government's target of 8.3-8.5% appears ambitious but strong domestic fundamentals provide support.
Key Supporting Factors
- Robust FDI inflows indicating investor confidence
- Low unemployment supporting domestic consumption
- Controlled inflation maintaining purchasing power
- Export competitiveness despite trade challenges
- Parliamentary support raising GDP target to 8%
Conclusion
Vietnam's economic performance in 2025 demonstrates resilience and growth potential. Strong fundamentals including low unemployment, controlled inflation, and robust FDI inflows position the economy well for sustained development.
Sources and Citations
- Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate Link
- International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile Link
- World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates Link
- Government of Vietnam - General Statistics Office Link
- Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam Link
- IMF - Vietnam and the IMF Link
- FocusEconomics - Vietnam Economic Indicators Link
- National Statistics Office of Vietnam - Economic Reports Link
- VietnamNet - Economic News and Analysis Link
- IMF - Article IV Mission Reports Link
- Vietnam Briefing - Economic Analysis Link
- Vietnam Investment Review - FDI Statistics Link
- Trading Economics - Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment Link
- White & Case - Regional Economic Outlook Link
- Vietnam Economic Times Link
- Asian Development Bank - Vietnam Country Partnership Link
- Ministry of Planning and Investment - Vietnam Link